Sunday, November 23, 2008

Predicted Crisis?

As we all know, a few weeks back Vice President-Elect Joe Biden predicted a guaranteed crisis that will be engineered to test the new president. The trick, I think, is to look and see just where that crisis might come from.

Of course, one big spot would be an altercation between Israel and either Syria or Iran. Particularly disturbing is the report that Iran now has enough nuclear fuel to construct a bomb. Lovely notion, is it not?

But where else? I predict Russia. And here is the logic behind my reasoning. I cannot claim credit, as I get my information from a collection of experts around the world, but many are saying the same thing. The troubling fact is, is that they sound extremely convincing to me. So, here goes.

Russia invaded Georgia (not in the US, Grace, in Europe..;)). The reason that they did so, though never admitted, was the fact that Georgia lies on a very key energy trade line. Oil and natural gas pipe right through that country. Russia's economy has been booming because of petrol dollars as well as natural gas, the combination of which makes up a sizeable portion of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

When governments make their budgets, they look ahead to see what the mark will be like. In Russia's case, oil was going at $140 a barrel, with predictions going as high as $500 for next year! Of course, not being stupid, the Russian legislature predicted a conservative value of $70 a barrel for next year. If you saw the market today, the price per barrel is under $50 and there are predictions that it might go as low as $10-$30! The Russian government will lose a significant amount of revenue because of the global economic crisis.

Now then. In Russia there is a large company called Gazprom, which is that country's natural gas provider. For all intents, it is a monopoly which used to be run by Mendenev, the current Russian president. Through parliament, the company was granted permission to form its own 'pipeline security force' designed to stave off would-be terrorist attacks. Of course, the entire force is comprised of former Russian special forces, replete with aircraft, tanks and military-style weaponry. To top it off, they have the support of the Russian military, who will back them if needed.

The reason that this company is important, is that with oil down, Russia's natural gas economy becomes doubly important. Right now, they provide some countries like the Ukraine and Hungary with 70-80% of their natural gas! Russia also gets some supplies at half-price and resells to Europe at full price.

Step in, now, to some smaller countries in the western region that are building gas pipelines through Georgia. The project, called Nabucco, will seriously cut into Russian profits, which are already way down. See the reason why Russia invaded? And, contrary to what may be believed, they are NOT going anywhere soon. They cannot afford to.

Straight from EuroPac:

In Eastern Europe, the Cold-War era pipeline carrying gas into Europe runs through Belarus and Ukraine. Since Ukraine's freedom-loving president Viktor Yushchenko is a friend of the West - even applying for NATO membership - that section of the pipeline has become Russia's Achilles heel. That's because Russia's main "peace-time" weapon to keep down uppity neighbors is natural gas. Consider this:

  • Ukraine relies on Russia for 71% of its gas needs.
  • Hungary obtains over 80% of its natural gas from Russia.
  • The Baltic countries, Finland, and Slovakia are almost entirely dependent on Russian supplies.
  • Even Turkey receives most of its gas from Russia.

Right now, the European Union has to import 57% of its natural gas. This will rise to 84% by 2030. Much will come from Russia. And most of this gas is still shipped through that Cold War-era pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The two countries have a history of pipeline-related hostilities!

Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom has choked off gas flows to Ukraine in the past: Russia doubled the gas price for Ukraine in 2006... raised it by 37% in 2007... and by 38% this year. When Ukraine couldn't pay, they simply cut off gas deliveries. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in June that his country may double the gas price again for 2009. In view of its budget situation and the continuing efforts to push through the Nabucco Project, Russia needs to strike again. The timing is crucial. It will have to happen when...

  • Ukraine and Europe require gas most, in the dead of winter...
  • The probability of U.S. interference is minimal, due to an inexperienced, "non-confrontational" new administration...
  • The economic situation in Europe is critical thanks to the recent financial crisis!
  • Russia will raise the price of its natural gas to the Ukraine, who will not be able to pay.

/END EuroPac Report

The Gazprom will cut off the flow of gas to that country and the Ukraine will not be able to resell the gas to Europe, causing a major economic issue.

If Ukraine moves to block the pipeline, Gazprom's troops will move to "protect" their business interests. Gas prices will go rise at the threat of armed conflict. And Russian stocks will collapse as investors pull out in a panic. (Remember what happened when Russia invaded Georgia?)

As investors sell off Gazprom stock, the Russian government will then step in to nobly buy up the stocks in an effort to aid the company. When all is said and done, Russia will have nationalized Gazprom, and be in control of the entire natural gas line in the country.

Sound implausible? Remember 1991?

The revolution is at hand. Will you be a leader or a follower?


  1. You know, as I look at the larger issues around the world, it is only God who restrains such evil. It is a great blessing and comfort to know that, ultimately, God is in control and He really does have something to "prove" about what man really is apart from Him: evil. :)

    I knew it was about oil and gas in Georgia. Those are the interests of the USA for the "freedom" of Georgia. Yet, principle matters to me. South Ossettia (sp?) willed to be free and return to Russia and Georgia attacked South Ossettia to maintain control. That's not democratic. That's not a "Just War" that Georgia attacked South Ossettia's people.

    Are we as evil as Russia?? Are we an "evil empire"??

    I saw in 1991 that Russia committed to Democracy and no more foreign expansionism by military force. I just do consider Russia within the rights of God-given inalienable rights to protect and defend South Ossettia from Georgia.

    On principle, I can see it no other way. I think I am being unbiased.

    Why should South Ossettia be oppressed contrary to the will of a free people if they want to return to Russia and not be part of Georgia??

    Because of oil??

    Does money now determine what is a true inalienable right from God and trump the rights of a free people to form a government by their own consent??

    I side on the side of principle. I side with South Ossettia's right to determine their own allegiances and their own Independence from Georgia.

    Whatever the monetary consequences, the principles of freedom and democracy - I uphold in respect for persons created equal by God and endowed with certain inalienable rights.

    If Georgia wants to remain an Independent and Free Sovereign Nation State from Russia, I support their God-given inalienable rights to do so, also. :)

    What of Russia??

    Is it right for any nation to impose it's will on free peoples??

    I have not studied the "makeup" of Russia since 1991. Honestly, to me, it's the free will of the people of South Ossettia that matters to me. I want to function by God-ordained principles, not by political or economic expedience. I'd rather trust God as America functions by principles she says she stands for. I don't like hypocrisy that is dictated by money.

    Tell me if you think I"m wrong.

    Hope I won't get kicked out of the swamp. :) lol

    I'm not being a communist "sympathizer"... I'm trying to be a God and democracy principled person. :)

    If I'm wrong on how I see things on Georgia, Russia, and South Ossettia, please let me know.



  2. Unfortunately, all that is seen is what is given by the media from the area, and everyone has their own 'side' to the story.

    While I agree that people should be free to choose, when the international boundaries were set, the area of South Ossetia was given to be under Georgian rule. There are many Georgians living there, albeit the larger majority are pro-Russia in ideology.

    According to some reports, georgia attacked in order to defend its citizens who were being murdered there. I imagine that had a lot to do with the separatists actions and Russia putting a heavy amount of troops on the border.

    I don't say Georgia was right, but consider a host of illegal aliens in California claiming they want to become part of Mexico again. Will we grant them their wish? After all, it is th ewill of the people, regardless of the internationally agreed boundaries.

    I think it is ALL about the almighty profit. In this case, oil and gas. The US supports them for it, because they can deliver it to Europe and they are our allies.

    I wish I could truly know everything that was going on there. But regardless, as I said in my post, I think it will revisi us here in the near future.

    Oh.. and you would NEVER be bounced from my swamp. I love healthy debate. Especially with a person of conviction and quality argument.